Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.344280 0.391006 0.441727 0.500875 0.567967 0.641719 0.728962
2025-09-28 0.271506 0.332421 0.403603 0.492935 0.602103 0.731250 0.895778
2025-10-05 0.230529 0.302008 0.391265 0.510944 0.667352 0.865043 1.134316
2025-10-12 0.191866 0.267602 0.368159 0.511513 0.710885 0.978808 1.367094
2025-10-19 0.163625 0.241915 0.351977 0.518100 0.762925 1.111266 1.646169
2025-10-26 0.143198 0.223561 0.342730 0.532459 0.827635 1.270645 1.988753
2025-11-02 0.119304 0.195986 0.315508 0.515542 0.842924 1.359430 2.240197
2025-11-09 0.098392 0.169539 0.285744 0.489558 0.839377 1.417771 2.452172
2025-11-16 0.084359 0.152050 0.267594 0.479407 0.859636 1.516731 2.745900
2025-11-23 0.072554 0.136453 0.250163 0.467506 0.874563 1.608048 3.039705
2025-11-30 0.065904 0.129056 0.245968 0.478484 0.931869 1.781939 3.509624
2025-12-07 0.056740 0.115450 0.228293 0.461334 0.933459 1.852677 3.794033
2025-12-14 0.049872 0.105517 0.216637 0.455115 0.957478 1.973918 4.206420
2025-12-21 0.043695 0.096010 0.204414 0.445882 0.974122 2.083453 4.614263
2025-12-28 0.040531 0.092364 0.203670 0.460667 1.043748 2.313046 5.316947
2026-01-04 0.036483 0.086115 0.196425 0.460103 1.079762 2.476277 5.900362
2026-01-11 0.033359 0.081466 0.192005 0.465243 1.129610 2.677994 6.606889
2026-01-18 0.031062 0.078396 0.190723 0.477555 1.198372 2.933859 7.486396
2026-01-25 0.027353 0.071263 0.178756 0.461984 1.196764 3.022260 7.967076
2026-02-01 0.023700 0.063676 0.164523 0.438431 1.171273 3.048114 8.292532
2026-02-08 0.021233 0.058779 0.156309 0.429150 1.181365 3.165635 8.880659
2026-02-15 0.018993 0.054129 0.148029 0.418364 1.185711 3.268897 9.448008
2026-02-22 0.017868 0.052388 0.147239 0.428085 1.248306 3.538462 10.529841